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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."